40/100 Gigabit Network Strategies Monthly
One-year subscription includes 12 issues, corporate site license,
and access to analyst team for follow-up Q&A: $1,995.00 USD
(Corporate single issue: $500 USD / Individual single issue: $250 USD)
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December 2011 issue:
Cost of Verizon's Planned Greenfield Core
Will Likely Surpass Total Investment in FiOS
(updated January 2012)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Contrarian Point of View
Figure 2: C-Band Capacity at the High End
Exhibit A: We Beg to Differ on 100G Growth
Figure 3: Convoluted Logic on 100G Pricing
Figure 4: "It's Déjà vu All Over Again"
Figure 5: A Press Release After the Fact
Figure 6: Recent Pragmatic Public Statements
Figure 7: Another Look at Test Systems
Figure 8: A Change in Leadership?
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November 2011 issue:
Cisco Systems Straddling the Line Between IP and Emerging All-Optical Paradigm
(updated December 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Cisco Systems and Long Haul
Exhibit A: Future 100G Developments at Cisco Systems I
Exhibit B: Future 100G Developments at Cisco Systems II
Figure 2: Current State of the 100G MSAs
Figure 3: Continuing Down-cline?
Figure 4: Level 3 and Global Crossing
Figure 5: Cannot be Just a Flavor of the Month
Figure 6: Somewhat Glorification
Figure 7: 100G and Brand New Fiber
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October 2011 issue:
Verizon's Philosophical Shift to the "FiOS-ation"
of its Optical Core Network
(updated November 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Outlook for 10G/40G/100G Combo at Verizon
Figure 2: Acceptance by Vendors in New Project
Figure 3: Latest on Verizon's Upcoming Humongous RFP
Figure 4: How Does Verizon Sell a Brand New Core Network?
Figure 5: Only Complete Compatibility is Acceptable
Figure 6: Impact of Alleged Tax Shortages by Verizon
Figure 7: Supplier With the Largest Installed Base of 10G OTN Chips?
Figure 8: Vendor Update
Figure 9: Frontier Trapped on Wireless
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September 2011 issue:
New Minimalist 100G Designs Show Low Market Outlook/
10G Life-Expansion Innovations
(updated October 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Ekinops' New 100G at a Glance
Figure 1: Cost of 100G vs Lighting Another Fiber
Figure 2: Impact of Level 3/Global Crossing Merger
Figure 3: Yet Another Factor Holding Up the High-End Market
Figure 4: More on Ekinops' 10G Capacity Extension Solution
Figure 5: About Chips
Figure 6: More on Alcatel-Lucent and 100G
Figure 7: BTI and 100G
Figure 8: Verizon's High-End Experimentation
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August 2011 issue:
Alcatel-Lucent Apparently Fostering 100G Technology Fanaticism
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Responses to Arguments in Lightwave's August 100G Webinar I
Exhibit B: Responses to Arguments in Lightwave's August 100G Webinar II
Figure 1: Cyan and 100G
Figure 2: Cyan's Z22 and High-End Optics
Figure 3: Cyan's Total Z-Series
Figure 4: Cyan's Financial Situation
Figure 5: The Most Realistic Vendor View of 40G/100G?
Figure 6: Real Story Behind the End of Verizon Strike
Figure 7: Earthquake Protection for US Public Networks
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July 2011 issue:
40G World Equipment Market Size Projections
(updated August, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: World 40G Public Network Market Projections
Figure 1: Assumptions Behind Projections
Figure 2: 40G Price Drops
Figure 3: 100G Price Drops
Figure 4: Impact of Fiber
Figure 5: Concerning 10G
Figure 6: Trickle Down Pattern of Next-Gen Optics
Figure 7: More on the Ciena Saga
Figure 8: Ciena Will Probably Not Make Its Money Back on Nortel Assets
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June 2011 issue:
Greater Scrutiny Necessary for the 100G Cheerleaders
(updated August, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Realities of the 100G Marketplace
Figure 1: No Change from the Top
Figure 2: Our Early Doubts on Ciena's "Nortel" Gear at Verizon Seem True
Figure 3: Ciena's 4200 Lives On
Figure 4: Surprise Contender
Figure 5: Case for Alcatel-Lucent Not Dropping the "Lucent" Name
Figure 6: Falling Star
Figure 7: Tier II Carriers and High-End Optics
Figure 8: Exception to the Rule?
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May 2011 issue:
The Case for Multiple 40G Options?
(updated July, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Outlook for MultiPhy
Figure 2: Should MultiPhy Revisit the Access Space?
Figure 3: New Coherent Players
Figure 4: Opnext's Future
Figure 5: A More Nuanced Surprise
Figure 6: The 100G Paradox
Figure 7: Intimidation by the Chinese Vendors
Figure 8: Hopeful Signs for 100G?
Figure 9: The Other Nortel Patents and Ciena
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April 2011 issue:
Fujitsu's 7120 and 40G/Clouds Enable Higher Optical Rates
(updated June, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Impact of Fujitsu's 7120 with 40G
Figure 2: Cloud-Based Services Bolstering the High-End Optics Market
Figure 3: Should Some 100G Startups Actually Exit in 2011?
Figure 4: Juniper/Opnext's Biggest Challenge on 100G
Figure 5: Level 3 and Infinera
Figure 6: Level 3 and Huawei
Figure 7: 40GbE vs OTN
Figure 8: MRV and Xtera
Figure 9: Ciena Continues to Move Away from "Nortel"
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March 2011 issue:
Outlook for Huawei, NSN, Cisco Systems and Others
(updated April, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: More on the Juniper/Opnext Combination
Figure 2: Why was Acacia Not Chosen by Juniper?
Figure 3: Google and 100G Revisited
Figure 4: Impact of 10G XFPs
Figure 5: More on Verizon and Suppliers
Figure 6: ZTE and 100G
Figure 7: Future ODU6
Figure 8: Cisco Systems and Ericsson Coming Together?
Figure 9: Huawei and Serendipity
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February 2011 issue:
Juniper and 100G/OTU4
(updated April, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Juniper and Opnext
Figure 2: Juniper and Coherent Technology in the Future
Figure 3: Juniper and ADVA
Figure 4: Juniper and Nokia Siemens Networks
Figure 5: 40GbE
Figure 6: 40G Pricing
Figure 7: Single Carrier vs Dual Carrier 100G
Figure 8: More on 160G Possibly Getting Back on the Table
Figure 9: Google's Bid on Nortel Patents Critical to Ciena
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January 2011 issue:
Service Provider Pain Threshold is X Factor
(updated April, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Verizon and Suppliers
Figure 2: Sprint and 100G
Figure 3: Huawei and Developing Countries
Figure 4: New ODU5
Figure 5: Could 160G Get Back on the Table?
Figure 6: The Hope for the Terabit
Figure 7: Night and Day Compared with the Past
Figure 8: A Resurgence in the Good Old Telecom Structure
Figure 9: More on the Wireless Folks Running Verizon
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December 2010 issue:
Verizon is Not Leapfrogging 40G to 100G
(updated April, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Verizon's US 100G Routes
Figure 2: Ciena as a Supplier
Figure 3: Alcatel-Lucent's Current Competitive Position
Figure 4: Fujitsu's Current Competitive Position
Figure 5: Component Vendor Focus
Figure 6: Huawei as a Game Changer
Figure 7: How Do US Companies Survive Against Huawei?
Figure 8: Optimization is a Necessity Along with High-Speed Rates
Figure 9: OTN Enables More 40G/100G
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November 2010 issue:
100G Startups Should Consider Exiting in 2012
(updated April, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Future 100G Market: Mini-Surge, Delay, Then Rapid Growth
Figure 2: The Short-Term Component Market Actually Looks Good
Figure 3: More on Coherent 40G
Figure 4: More on 40G Strength in Developing Markets
Figure 5: Huawei Threat to US Component Companies
Figure 6: Timing on Going Beyond 100G
Figure 7: More of the Case Against OTN in the Enterprise
Figure 8: How Can Ethernet Seemingly be Anything?
Figure 9: More on At a Time When it is Not Fashionable to Promote 40G
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October 2010 issue:
40G Market Boom
(updated March, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Cost of Coherent 40G at Par with 10G on Some Level?
Figure 2: 40G DQPSK vs DPSK Cost
Figure 3: Coherent 40G vs Non-Coherent Market
Figure 4: 40G Strength in Developing Markets
Figure 5: 40G and Eastern Europe
Figure 6: Ongoing Impediments to Best 100G Spectral Efficiency
Figure 7: Huawei's Second Biggest Strength
Figure 8: Beyond 100G and OFDM
Figure 9: At a Time When it is Not Fashionable to Promote 40G
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September 2010 issue:
40G OTN/100G OTN
(updated March, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Optimal Capacities to Pay for an OTN Switch I
Figure 2: Optimal Capacities to Pay for an OTN Switch II
Figure 3: Chance for a Dynamic OTN Switch Fabric?
Figure 4: OTN is Mainly ODU-2 Supporting 10G & Higher?
Figure 5: The Cheapest OTN Cross-Connect
Figure 6: ODUflex
Figure 7: Twilight Zone 100G Cost Pronouncements
Figure 8: Business Dynamics Could Change if 100G is Late
Figure 9: 100G Chip Sets
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August 2010 issue:
Sticking Strictly to the Existing Coherent 100G Standard on Line Side?
(updated February, 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Juniper and Opnext
Figure 2: Juniper's Challenge with Opnext
Figure 3: Huawei' 100G Strategy
Figure 4: ADVA Optical Networking and 100G
Figure 5: Oclaro
Figure 6: 40G Market Momentum
Figure 7: 10G Pricing Will Not Stop Declining in Short Term
Figure 8: High-Frequency Trading and 100G
Figure 9: Ciena's Power Shift?
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July 2010 issue:
100G Component Sourcing Problems/Fujitsu & NSN Still Dealing
with Cisco Systems-CoreOptics
(updated November, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: LR4 CFP vs LR10
Figure 2: Biggest Component Problem for 100G
Figure 3: Major 100G MSA Vendors
Figure 4: NeoPhotonics at a Glance
Figure 5: Assessment of NeoPhotonics
Figure 6: Vertical Integration and 100G
Figure 7: Fujitsu's 100G Announcement
Figure 8: Fujitsu and FEC
Figure 9: Broadcom and the 100-Terabit Switch
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June 2010 issue:
Cisco Systems' Shutdown of Coherent Technology to Its Competitors
(updated August, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Alcatel-Lucent & Serial 100G
Exhibit A: Latest on Competition to Alcatel-Lucent on Serial 100G
Figure 2: Price Comparison Between LR4 and LR10 Components
Figure 3: Verizon's Acknowledgement of Muxponder Approach with 100G
Figure 4: 100G Subsystem Provider Stage Bypassed?
Figure 5: Xelerated at a Glance
Figure 6: ClariPhy at a Glance
Figure 7: Inphi at a Glance
Figure 8: NSN and 400G
Press Release
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May 2010 issue:
Infinera Had to Make a Choice
(updated June, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Infinera's Clear Simplicity Advantage
Figure 2: Inherent Technical Characteristic on Backend?
Figure 3: Infinera's Secret Wish?
Figure 4: Exaggeration on "40G Squeeze"
Figure 5: Infinera Admission
Figure 6: Cisco Systems' Purchase of CoreOptics
Figure 7: Dichotomy on Optical Gear at Cisco Systems
Figure 8: Juniper in High-End Optical Game
Figure 9: Case for OTN & MPLS Not Being in Conflict
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April 2010 issue:
360networks and High-End Optics
(updated June, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: 360networks and 40G
Figure 2: Nortel's (Ciena's) 10G in Limbo at 360networks
Figure 3: Competitive Position of DWDM Suppliers at 360
Figure 4: 360networks and Leasing Fiber
Figure 5: 360networks' Capacity Utilization Situation
Figure 6: Continuing Reliance on Low-End SONET at 360networks
Figure 7: 360 Network Expansion
Figure 8: 360 Pricing Philosophy
Figure 9: VoIP Push at 360networks
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March 2010 issue:
Assessment of ADVA Optical Networking & 40/100G
(updated April, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Features of ADVA's Enterprise 100GbE Solution
Figure 2: Telecom Pragmatics Evaluation of ADVA's 100GbE Solution
Figure 3: Telecom Pragmatics Evaluation of ADVA's Gearbox
Figure 4: Features of ADVA's ODU Encapsulation
Figure 5: Telecom Pragmatics Evaluation of ADVA's ODU Encapsulation
Figure 6: ADVA Claims to Have Best 40G Muxponder
Figure 7: Telecom Pragmatics Evaluation of ADVA's 40G Muxponder
Figure 8: PM-QPSK/Coherent Technology Not Just for Fixed 100G Optics
Figure 9: Movement to 40G/100G Another Reason Not to Go Outside C-band
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February 2010 issue:
Insights into AT&T's 100G Ultra Long Haul Test
(updated March, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: AT&T's 100G Test at a Glance
Figure 2: Manifestation of the Real AT&T
Figure 3: Cisco Systems & AT&T 100G Trial
Figure 4: Opnext & the AT&T Trial
Figure 5: Ixia & the AT&T Trial
Figure 6: Success in 40G No Guarantee for Vendor with 100G
Figure 7: Concentration on n x 10G
Figure 8: Latest on Level 3 & 100G
Figure 9: Update on Google's Capacity Needs
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January 2010 issue:
Vello Systems: Brand New Start or Last Gasp?
(updated February, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Credibility over OFDM
Figure 2: Potential Acquisition of Vendor
Exhibit A: Vello by the Numbers
Figure 3: Huawei vs Vello
Figure 4: What About Rest of Market Going to PM-QPSK at High End?
Figure 5: Vello & 100G
Figure 6: OFDM & Beyond 100G
Figure 7: Vello Systems & L Band
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December 2009 issue:
Ciena's Nortel Gear Unlikely to Get Verizon's 40/100G Business
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Ciena Believes VZ Will Now Buy Nortel 40/100G Gear
Figure 2: Ciena's Previous SONET Busts
Exhibit A: Other Examples of Past Delusional Thinking by Ciena's Leadership
Exhibit B: Further Thoughts on Ciena's Purchase of Nortel Transport Assets
Figure 3: A Case for Nortel Solidifying Ciena's 40/100G Position
Figure 4: Likely 100G Long-Haul Vendors to Verizon
Figure 5: Verizon & Fujitsu's 40G/100G Solutions
Figure 6: Latest on Speeds & Serial vs Muxponders at Verizon for LH
Figure 7: Verizon's Most Congested Routes
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November 2009 issue:
Google's Pressing Need for 40/100G
(updated December 31, 2009)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Google's 40/100G Plans
Exhibit A: Suppliers' Competitive Positioning at Google
Figure 2: Google & Operating Costs
Figure 3: Build vs Lease Capacity at Google
Exhibit B: Google & Designing Telecom Gear
Figure 4: Network Capacity Considerations at Google
Figure 5: Purpose of Google's Investment in Other Networks
Figure 6: Why Google Never Wanted to Run a Public Network
Figure 7: Google's Mysterious Network Paradox
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October 2009 issue:
Fujitsu vs Hitachi on 40/100G
(updated November 23, 2009)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Fujitsu vs Hitachi on US High-End Optical Strategy
Figure 1: Strategic Analysis of Fujitsu's Overall US Optical System Business
Figure 2: Strategic Analysis of Hitachi's Overall US Optical System Business
Figure 3: Fujitsu's 40G Evolution
Figure 4: Hitachi's North America Optical Strategy Alternatives
Figure 5: Supplier Hesitancy to Promote Muxponders over Serial
Figure 6: Fujitsu & Verizon
Figure 7: Lowest Cost/Bit in LH/Regional Networks
Figure 8: Case of 40G Proving In With Cost over 4 x 10G
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September 2009 issue:
Lower Manhattan: Mecca for 100G & Mesh Networking
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Change at the 140 West Central Office
Figure 2: The Major Players in the 100G Deal
Figure 3: Reasons for NYSE to go to 100G Early
Potential Enticement Trap for Ciena?
Mesh Networks Further Uptown
Spotlight on CenturyLink
Exhibit A: Current & Projected Installed Base Data on CenturyLink
Figure 4: Impact on Embarq Resulting from Merger
Figure 5: Impact of Merger on CenturyTel
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August 2009 issue:
100G Chip/Component Price Pressures to Force Virtual Vertical Integration by System Vendors
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
The Case for Vertical Integration
Figure 1: Status Quo vs Vertical Integration
The Case Against Vertical Integration
Forces Leading to More Specialization
Figure 2: Example of Four-Company Involvement in Food Chain
Need for Greater Virtual Vertical Integration
Figure 3: Solution is More Virtual VI in 100G Market
Spotlight on Infinera
Figure 4: Infinera Experience in Vertical Integration
Figure 5: Infinera's Overall Performance at Level 3
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July 2009 issue:
Metro 40G
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Potential Increase in Market for Metro 40G
Figure 1: 40G Metro Configurations
Possible Metro 40G Network Deployment Scenarios
Figure 2: Metros in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Keeping Metro 40G in Perspective
Figure 3: Cost Disparity Between 40G Interfaces/Ports
Focus on the News
"Nokia Siemens Networks and Juniper Networks to Integrate IP and Optical Technologies"
Corning Introduces New Solutions for Data Center Applications
Verizon's Dynamic Optical Network Takes Global Honor
Supplier Spotlight
Ciena
Figure 4: Ciena's Overall Product Strategy
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June 2009 issue:
RBOC 40G/100G Network Strategies
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: RBOC 40G/100G Projected Outlook Financial Analysis 40/100G Strategies of RBOCs AT&T Verizon Qwest Conclusion Focus on the News Supplier Spotlight Ekinops
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