Independent Telco Tactics Monthly
One-year subscription includes 12 issues, corporate site license,
and access to analyst team for follow-up Q&A: $1,995.00 USD
(Corporate single issue: $500 USD / Individual single issue: $250 USD — Contact rick@telecompragmatics.com)
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August 2010 issue: A Simpler, Cheaper "WDM-PON" for Tier 3 RLECs?
(updated February 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Calling it WDM PON a Problem?
Figure 2: New Product Name?
Figure 3: Potential Pitfall
Figure 4: Fiber Cost Advantage?
Figure 5: Long-Reach Problems
Exhibit A: Telecom Engineering USA at a Glance
Figure 6: Strength of the ILEC Revisited?
Exhibit B: Questions that May Never Get Fully Answered
Figure 7: Latest on Frontier and West Virginia
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July 2010 issue: Frontier Buying Verizon's Entire Remaining
Wireline Including FiOS Within Five Years?
(updated November 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Future IOC Purchases of Verizon Lines and the Labor Union
Figure 2: Much Easier for IOCs to Abandon Labor Union
Figure 3: Potential Buyers of Verizon's FiOS
Figure 4: Verizon's Apparent Outlook on the Likely Outcome of FiOS
Figure 5: FTR Continues to Have Inside Track in Getting Rest of VZ's Copper
Figure 6: Frontier and Copper
Figure 7: Copper Situation in FiOS Areas
Figure 8: AT&T as Wild Card for Buyout of All VZ Wireline Assets?
Figure 9: Verizon and Long-Haul Assets
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June 2010 issue: The Qwest Factor in Repositioning Access Vendors
(updated October 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Qwest and FTTH?
Figure 2: Focus on Northeastern Portion of Qwest
Figure 3: Why did Occam Go from Last to First as Calix Acquisition?
Figure 4: Occam Most Likely Could Not Have Found a Better Exit
Figure 5: OSI as a Model for Occam Acquisition
Figure 6: Apparent OSMINE Activity by Calix
Figure 7: Windstream and Q-Comm's KDL
Figure 8: Windstream and Q-Comm's CLEC Business
Figure 9: CenturyLink and IPTV
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May 2010 issue: Debate on IOCs Needing to Be Ready for IPv6
(updated August 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: IPTV as Potential Catalyst?
Figure 2: Elaboration on Unidentified Variants in OTT Space
Figure 3: IP Addresses Usually Finding Some Use in Various Schemes
Figure 4: Reclamation as a Solution?
Figure 5: Other Points of View Refuted
Figure 6: Aggregation Boxes Helping Situation
Figure 7: Recommended Minimum Preparation for IOCs
Figure 8: Inhibitors to IPv6 Contingency Planning
Figure 9: IOC Involvement with IPv6
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April 2010 issue: Probably Room for Just Two Large IOCs/
Second Part of CenturyTel-Qwest Merger
(updated May 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: The Missing Link
Figure 2: CenturyTel's Transport Leasing Expenditures from Qwest
Figure 3: Purchase of Level 3 and Global Crossing by IOCs?
Figure 4: Other Long-Haul Carriers that can be Purchased?
Figure 5: Embarq & Network Management
Figure 6: Billing Systems
Figure 7: Investments in Embarq Territory
Figure 8: Power Play
Figure 9: CenturyTel Credo?
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March/April 2010 Part 1 issue: CenturyTel/Qwest Combination
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Financial Analysis
Figure 2: Focus on Enterprise Business
Figure 3: Focus on Nationwide Footprint
Figure 4: Potential Wireless Acquisition Down the Road
Figure 5: CenturyTel's Biggest Problem with Qwest Acquisition
Figure 6: Looking Under Qwest's Hood
Figure 7: Cultural Transition
Figure 8: CenturyLink Ultimately Main Alternative to Verizon Business?
Figure 9: Calix Now Tier 1 Supplier
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February 2010 issue: FCC Broadband Outline/Calix's IPO/Round Two of "Anti-Stimulus"
(Updated March, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: FCC Broadband Guidelines Disaster Waiting to Happen
Figure 2: Hype over 100MB/50MB in FCC Document
Figure 3: Outlook for FCC Broadband Ideas
Figure 4: Likely Determination Factors of Calix's Initial Valuation
Figure 5: Calix's Financial Situation
Figure 6: Future Look for Calix
Figure 7: Positive Changes in Broadband Stimulus Round II Process
Figure 8: Negative Aspects of Broadband Stimulus Round II Process
Figure 9: Further Elaboration on Connected Communities
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January 2010 issue: Zhone Technologies: An Uphill Path
(Updated March, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Financial Assessment of Zhone
Figure 2: Zhone's Three Major Challenges Going Forward
Figure 3: Why Can't Zhone Become Exclusively an Export Company?
Figure 4: Telecom Pragmatics' Recommended Strategy for Zhone
Figure 5: Historical Context for Zhone
Exhibit A: Zhone's Prior M&A Activities
Exhibit B: Salisbury & Zhone
Figure 6: Etisalat & Zhone
Figure 7: Zhone and GVT
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December 2009 issue: Calix Networks: Conflicting Interpretations of Future Strategy
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Alternative Interpretation
Figure 1: Calix's Philosophy on Acquisitions
Quick Spotlight on Zhone Technologies
Figure 2: Win-Win with Conjectured Merger Between Calix & Cyan
Figure 3: Strategic Analysis of Cyan
Figure 4: Feedback from Service Provider Using Both Suppliers
Figure 5: Zhone at a Glance
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November 2009 issue: Occam Networks: A Strategic Analysis
(Updated December 8, 2009)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Financial Analysis
Occam's Overall Message
Assessment of International Play and on Ethernet Emphasis
Figure 1: Potential Case for Active Ethernet in Future by Occam
Figure 2: Telecom Pragmatics' Refutation of Occam's Active Ethernet Argument
Telecom Pragmatics' Recommendations on Occam's Future Strategy
Potential End Game for Occam?
Focus on the News
Calix Files IPO
Huawei Acquisition of Calix?
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October 2009 issue: Enablence Technologies: A Strategic Analysis
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Enablence's Message
Telecom Pragmatics' Assessment of Enablence
Telecom Pragmatics' Recommendations on Enablence's Future Strategy
Conclusion
Figure 1: Telecom Pragmatics' Suggested Potential Strategy for Enablence
Focus on the News
FRP Bankrupt: Still Low Wall for VZ Lines in NY, PA, etc. Going to IOCs
Figure 2: Arguments for Verizon Not Doing More to Save FairPoint
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September 2009 issue: Viable DSL Strategies for RLECs
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Case I: DSLAMs in Remote Areas
Wake-up Call for Independent Telcos
Case II: VDSL2 for Small to Medium Business Services
VDSL2
Bonding
Case III: VDSL2 for MDU Applications
Figure 1: DSL Bonding: Inefficient Way of Increasing Bandwidth
Case IV: DSL in Cities; Fiber in Rural Areas
Figure 2: Copper Technologies in Decline at IOCs
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August 2009 issue: Hosted PBX Services Critical to IOCs
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Financial Analysis
Soft Switches
Figure 1: IOC Rationale for Managed VoIP
Figure 2: Soft Switch Pricing in IOC Space
Media Gateways and SBCs
Operational and Capital Costs for Hosted PBX
Figure 3: Formula for Success in IOC Business Market
Hosted PBX Network Structure and Manufacturers
Marketing Practicality
Other Service Providers in Hosted PBX Space
IOCs as Major Opportunity for Soft Switch Vendors
Conclusion Focus on the News
TDS Announces Acquisition
Level 3 and the Stimulus
Extension on Applications
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July 2009 issue: Government Stimulus Impact on Telecom Infrastructure at IOCs
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Major Vendor Beneficiaries Financial Analysis Dominance by Independents Telcos in Process Cable TV Companies Figure 1: Projected Priority for Funds by Telecom Pragmatics FTTH vs Alternative Technologies Qwest and DSL? Figure 2: Projected Priority for Technology by Telecom Pragmatics Middle Mile Factors The Anti-Stimulus Nature of the Bill Supplier Considerations Conclusion Focus on the News "Buy American Exception under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009" Telephony's "Rural telcos seek bigger role for Universal Service in National Broadband Plan" "Survey of Broadband Users Shows Satisfaction Highest Among those with Direct Fiber Connections," commissioned by the FTTH Council
Press Release
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June 2009 issue: M&A Activity of IOCs
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Projected Consolidation of Independent Telcos Financial Analysis Impact on Equipment Supplier Community Frontier's Purchase of Verizon Assets CenturyTel/Embarq Merger (CenturyLink) Windstream's Acquisition of D&E Communications FairPoint Communications and Northern New England Others Conclusion Focus on the News FCC Publishes "Bringing Broadband to Rural America" Holdup in Stimulus Funds? From Nashua Telegraph, "PUC to FairPoint: Wait to collect cash"
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May 2009 issue: Advancing Independent Telco Boom
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, John Griffin, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents:
Projected Independent Telco Line Market Size for 2015
Financial Analysis
Major Factors Causing Independent Telco Ascendency
Continuing Sales of RBOC Rural Lines
FairPoint & Hawaiian Telcom Experiences not Showstoppers
Government Subsidization
High Growth Levels in Exurbia
RLEC Concentration Levels Increase
ILECs will Most of the Time Beat Out CLECs/MSOs for Business Services
Network & Business Strategies for Large RLECs
Network & Business Strategies for Small RLECs
Conclusion
Focus on the News
Verizon Selling Large Number of Lines to Frontier
Windstream Purchases D&E Communications
Telephony report: "Bad economy may be slowing RLEC line loss"
Press Release
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