Optical Switching/Transport Network Strategies Monthly
One-year subscription includes 12 issues, corporate site license,
and access to analyst team for follow-up Q&A: $1,995.00 USD
(Corporate single issue: $500 USD / Individual single issue: $250 USD)
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January 2012 issue:
Fujitsu's Once-In-a-Lifetime Chance to Go "All-In" at Both AT&T and Verizon
(updated February 2012)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents:
Overview
Exhibit A: Latest on Fujitsu's FLASHWAVE 9500
Figure 1: Similar to a Tier 2 Provider
Figure 2: More on the 9500
Exhibit B: Latest on Fujitsu's FLASHWAVE 7120
Figure 3: FPGAs and 100G
Figure 4: FPGA Push/Pull with Carriers
Figure 5: A More Focused Approach
Figure 6: Potpourri
Figure 7: Xtera Communications
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December 2011 issue: History Likely to Repeat Itself in 100G Market Development
(updated January 2012)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Older Fiber & Cisco's 100G
Figure 2: Cisco and ROADMs
Exhibit A: Cisco and Other Optical Matters
Figure 3: More on New Fiber for 100G Routes at Verizon
Figure 4: Latest on the Verizon Big RFP Release
Figure 5: Further on the Proposal
Figure 6: Impact of ROADMs
Figure 7: More on an Emerging Business
Figure 8: Key to Success in Optical Test Equipment Market
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November 2011 issue: Verizon's Relentless Pursuit of the Next-Generation God Box
(updated December 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Impact on Routers
Figure 2: A More Conservative Beginning
Figure 3: Drop in Anxiety
Figure 4: OFDMA to the Rescue?
Figure 5: Standard Protocol for Wireline and Wireless?
Figure 6: Eventual Demise of the Seven-Layer Model?
Figure 7: What About the Fiber?
Figure 8: Distrust Levels Declining?
Figure 9: How Much Does it Cost?
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October 2011 issue: Potentially More than Ever Wireline/Wireless Opportunities
for New Gear Vendors to Verizon
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: A Totally Unique RFP
Figure 2: More on the RFP
Figure 3: Latest on OTN Cross-Connects
Figure 4: Ciena Seems Somewhat Shaken Up by Verizon's Attention to Infinera
Figure 5: Further into the Abyss?
Figure 6: Pushback on 100G Product Development Assessments?
Figure 7: Response to Pushback
Figure 8: Frontier's Possible Move
Figure 9: Fujitsu's Move to the Access in the US?
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September 2011 issue: Transmode Unique with 100G/Its WDM-PON May be a Stretch
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Transmode's New High-End Tactic
Figure 2: Transmode's Response to Our Assessment of it 100G Gear
Figure 3: The Important Story is Advancement in Transport
Figure 4: Stakes Especially High for PMC-Sierra in OTN Chip Race
Figure 5: Different Value Proposition for OTN FPGAs
Figure 6: More on Cyan
Figure 7: Verizon's Storm Disaster
Figure 8: Timing on a Deficiency
Figure 9: Sign that NSN Has Given up on VZ's Optical Business
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August 2011 issue: Verizon's Swift Kick to the Butts of Ciena and Alcatel-Lucent
(updated September 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Another Verizon Incumbent to be Considered?
Figure 2: Cyan's Packet Edge Capability vs Routers
Figure 3: Juggling Switching and Transport
Figure 4: Cyan and OTN
Figure 5: Other Matters Involving Cyan
Figure 6: Shakeout in OTN Chip Space Likely
Figure 7: Verizon's 100G Party in the US is Over for Now
Figure 8: Are Unions Responsible for Driving Up Equipment Costs?
Figure 9: Verizon Wireless and No Dividend to Vodafone
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July 2011 issue: Sweet Spot in the Metro DWDM Market
(updated August 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Checking Up on Some Previous Speculation
Figure 2: Differing Strategies to Get to Layer 2 and Higher
Figure 3: Additional Update on Transmode
Figure 4: RBOC Politics Help Ensure OTN Pipes
Figure 5: The Falling Star Revisited
Figure 6: More on the Struggling Player
Figure 7: Architectural Shift I
Figure 8: Architectural Shift II
Figure 9: Effects of the Strike
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June 2011 issue: Transmode: A Sleeper in the US?
(updated July 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Transmode at a Glance
Figure 1: Additional European Penetration
Figure 2: Transmode in the US
Figure 3: Transmode on OTN vs Ethernet
Figure 4: Our Response
Figure 5: Transmode and "WDM PON Metro"
Figure 6: Our Take on the New Product
Figure 7: Long-Term Recipe for High Margins?
Figure 8: Transmode and 40G/100G
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May 2011 issue: Ericsson's Purchase of Telcordia Likely a Big Mistake
(updated June 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Ericsson is Substantially Overpaying for Telcordia
Figure 2: Definite National Security Concerns
Figure 3: Speeding Up End of OSMINE in Long Term?
Figure 4: Buyout Could Result in Actually Losing Leverage at AT&T
Figure 5: CenturyLink's Long-Haul Network
Figure 6: CenturyLink and OSMINE/TIRKS
Figure 7: TIRKS vs MetaSolv
Figure 8: CenturyLink and 100G
Figure 9: Latest on OTN
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April 2011 issue: Fujitsu's 7120 More for Long Term at Verizon
(updated May 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Existing Status of Fujitsu's 7120 at Verizon
Figure 2: Fujitsu's Recent Track Record
Figure 3: Another Low-Latency Transponder Technique
Figure 4: Verizon's Equipment Evaluations & Other Matters
Figure 5: Additional Negative Impact of Previous Nortel Culture at Ciena?
Figure 6: Ciena Now a Viable Candidate for Acquisition?
Figure 7: Latest on Tellabs
Figure 8: Bullish on 40G, but Almost Dead Without Coherent Detection
Figure 9: Hurdle with IPoDWDM
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March 2011 issue: Verizon and OTN
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Realities of Verizon's Business Unit
Figure 2: Verizon's Actual Game Plan?
Figure 3: Enterprise OTN and Verizon
Figure 4: Verizon and STS-1 Granularity
Figure 5: Juniper Networks' Anti-OTN Play
Figure 6: Very Low Barriers for Direct Competition with Juniper's PTX
Figure 7: Does an End-To-End Solution Usually Matter?
Figure 8: OTN vs VLANs
Figure 9: Definition of an OTN Interface
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February 2011 issue: OTN: Long-Elusive and Enduring Total Convergence
(updated March 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: AMCC's Commitment Level to OTN
Figure 2: OTN in the Enterprise Revisited
Figure 3: OTN and STS-1 Granularity
Figure 4: Almost $4B over 10 Years for ODU Switches Too Low?
Figure 5: Ethernet Clock Standards vs OTN Timing Capability
Figure 6: Tellabs' ODU Switch
Figure 7: Another Argument Against OTN in Enterprise
Figure 8: Enterprises Already Using OTN
Figure 9: Below ODU-0 Granularity by Vendor
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January 2011 issue: OTN Expected to Extend to Enterprises Significantly
(updated March 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Case Against OTN Following SONET Path to Enterprises
Figure 2: Other Arguments Against OTN Directly to Businesses
Figure 3: Case for OTN Following SONET Path to Enterprises
Figure 4: Finally Indefinite Convergence When Not Stressed by the Market?
Figure 5: Router Bypassing/IP Offloading
Figure 6: Latest on Ciena's Management
Figure 7: Software Development Paradox
Figure 8: DWDM and Low Latency
Figure 9: Required Features/Functionality for Carrier Ethernet Access
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December 2010 issue: OTN Will Likely Survive in Networks for Decades
(updated March 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Convergence Between Core Routers and Transport Much Later
Figure 2: Need for Specialized Transport Indefinitely
Figure 3: More on Ekinops
Figure 4: ADVA Optical Networking Getting into Long Haul
Figure 5: Data Center Business
Figure 6: Two Main Competitors to Metaswitch NTD
Figure 7: Metaswitch NTD's Sales Effort
Figure 8: Wrapping Some Hardware Around a Protocol?
Figure 9: OTN Reaching Out to Enterprises?
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November 2010 issue: Metaswitch's NTD: Unsung Enabler of OTN and MPLS-TP?
(updated March 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Eric Lampland, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Metaswitch NTD with OTN and MPLS-TP
Figure 2: Historical Perspective
Figure 3: High Barriers to Entry
Figure 4: Shifting Product Development Model
Figure 5: Competitors
Figure 6: Metaswitch Branding
Figure 7: More on OTN Cross-Connects
Figure 8: Telecom Pragmatics' Latest Evaluation of Alcatel-Lucent
Figure 9: Current Competitive Positions of Three Transport Vendors
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October 2010 issue: Close to $4B Worldwide OTN Cross-Connect Opportunity for Decade
(updated February 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: World OTN Cross-Connect Market Projections
Figure 2: Projected Supplier Market Shares
Figure 3: Assumptions Behind Projections
Figure 4: Continuing Change in Product Decision-Making Process at Verizon
Figure 5: Tellabs Wireless Execution More Vital than C-C Legacy at VZ
Figure 6: Straw that Broke Ciena Management's Back?
Figure 7: Impact of Ciena's New SVP, Global Marketing
Figure 8: More on the New SVP
Figure 9: Ciena's Next CEO?
Press Release
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September 2010 issue: Multilayer Planning and Management Software
(updated January 2011)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Heading to Nirvana?
Figure 2: Universal Provisioning and Management at Cisco Systems
Figure 3: Cisco Systems' Across Divisions Effort?
Figure 4: Cyan and Multilayer Planning/Management Software
Figure 5: Tier 2 Carriers & Universal Provisioning/Management
Figure 6: Cisco's CPT as a Multi-Service Kind of Box
Figure 7: Cisco's CPT Software
Figure 8: Impact of MPLS-TP on OTBU
Figure 9: Competitive Analysis of Potential MPLS-TP Transport Vendors
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August 2010 issue: Brand New Silent Coup Happening at Ciena?
(updated December 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Indications of a Sudden Change in Leadership?
Figure 2: Additional Reasons?
Figure 3: Further Reasons?
Figure 4: Case Against a Silent Coup
Figure 5: Cisco's CPT & Misunderstandings
Figure 6: Card Reuse and Shelves on CPT
Figure 7: TDM Service Delivery Options
Figure 8: Regarding Skepticism on Using Circuit Emulation for TDM
Figure 9: Pulling Off WDM in this Kind of a Platform
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July 2010 issue: Cisco Systems Can Become an Optical Powerhouse,
but Only After Major Cultural Corporate Shift
(updated December 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Cisco and Verizon
Figure 2: Cisco's CPT at a Glance
Figure 3: Cisco's Targeted Applications for CPT
Figure 4: CPT and ROADM Capability
Figure 5: CPT and Density
Figure 6: Telecom Pragmatics' First Impression of CPT
Figure 7: CPT and TDM Services
Figure 8: Cisco and XO
Figure 9: Cisco Systems and the Universities
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June 2010 issue: Tellabs Going All Out to Reclaim Leadership Position in Optical Cross-Connects
(updated October 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Major Advantages for Tellabs Getting into OTN Switch Market
Figure 2: Major Challenges for Tellabs Getting into OTN Switch Market
Figure 3: Ciena Treading Water?
Figure 4: Potential for Tellabs' Solution Replacing CoreDirectors
Figure 5: Alcatel-Lucent and Its OTN Switch Prospects
Figure 6: Sycamore as a Wild Card?
Figure 7: Huawei and OTN Switches
Figure 8: Need for STS Granularity Indefinitely
Figure 9: Tellabs and Higher Speeds
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May 2010 issue: Verizon Cautious with Purchases of Original Ciena Transport Products
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Transport Vendor Beneficiaries
Figure 2: Latest on Ciena's CN 4200 & Verizon
Figure 3: Latest on Ciena's Optical Cross-Connect & Verizon
Figure 4: Interoffice and Verizon
Figure 5: ULH and Verizon
Figure 6: More on Alcatel-Lucent Possibly Jettisoning "Lucent"
Figure 7: Would Ciena Buy "Lucent"?
Figure 8: AT&T vs Verizon on VoIP
Figure 9: CO Consolidation and Verizon
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April 2010 issue: Can ADVA Optical Networking Succeed Long Term with Product Differentiation?
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Our Assessment of ADVA's In-Service OTDR Capability
Figure 2: Functionality on Cloud Computing Card (5TCE)
Figure 3: Telecom Pragmatics Assessment of 5TCE
Figure 4: ADVA Says it is at Forefront of Latency Technology
Figure 5: Latency as New Big Buzzword
Figure 6: ADVA & AT&T
Figure 7: ADVA in the Research & Education Space
Figure 8: ADVA Still Maintains Movaz Well Worth Purchase
Figure 9: Should ADVA Continue Building Amplifiers In-House?
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March 2010 issue: Nortel's Impact on Ciena's 5400/CoreDirector II
(updated April, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Saga of Ciena's CoreDirector
Figure 2: Financial Performance of CoreDirector
Figure 3: Ciena's 5400 as an OTN Cross-Connect
Figure 4: Layer 3 vs OTN
Figure 5: CoreDirector & CN 4200
Figure 6: Potential Plan for 5400 Without 4200
Figure 7: Did Ciena Feel Stuck with Making Nortel Assets Purchase?
Figure 8: Ciena's Worldwide Packets Acquisition
Figure 9: Barriers to Acquisition of Ciena in the Past
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February 2010 issue: Nortelization of Ciena Seems Inevitable
(updated April, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Former Nortel Execs Highly Influential at Ciena
Exhibit B: Past & Future Impact of Nortel Execs on Ciena
Figure 1: Integrated Photonics Acquisition & CN 4200
Figure 2: Financial Performance of CN 4200
Figure 3: CN 4200 & OME 6500 Head to Head
Figure 4: Positioning 4200 & 6500 to Particular Markets Nonsensical
Figure 5: New Outlook for CN 4200
Figure 6: More on OME 6500 Becoming Favorite
Figure 7: Long-Term Outlook for Ciena
Press Release
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January 2010 issue: Alcatel-Lucent's 1870 Transport Tera Switch: A Hail Mary Play?
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Exhibit A: Broadband/Optical Cross-Connect Evolution at AlcaLu
Figure 1: AlcaLu Appears to be Frantically Responding to Ciena's Recent Actions
Figure 2: A Cross-Connect on a Chip?
Figure 3: Conspicuous Absence of "Lucent" in Presentation
Figure 4: Insufficient Response to Question on Ciena's Base of Switches
Figure 5: Relative Lack of Importance on Biggest Capacity
Figure 6: What About Modularity?
Figure 7: What does AlcaLu Have to Lose?
Figure 8: Telecom Pragmatics' Assessment of 1870 Analyst Presentation
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December 2009 issue: Alcatel-Lucent Becoming Just Alcatel?
(updated January, 2010)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: Competitive Advantages of Alcatel-Lucent in Optical Core
Figure 2: Competitive Disadvantages for Alcatel-Lucent in Optical Core
Figure 3: Just Becoming "Alcatel" Arguably Inevitable
Figure 4: Why Alcatel/Lucent is Not Nortel on Transport
Figure 5: Chance that AlcaLu Could Wind Up Like Nortel
Figure 6: How AlcaLu Can Avoid Bankruptcy
Figure 7: AlcaLu Should Not Take Verizon for Granted in Optics
Figure 8: Assessment of Alcatel's Optical Company Acquisitions
Figure 9: Large Carriers Increasingly Looking at Mid-sized/Smaller Suppliers
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November 2009 issue: Cyan Optics — Tenuous Value-Add as Standalone Entity?
(updated December 30, 2009)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Emphasis on Ethernet
Adtran and Cyan
Marriage of Access Company with Cyan
Exhibit A: Current Hurdles for Cyan Optics
Exhibit B: Cyan's Solution as DWDM Play According to Buyers
Figure 1: Growing Ties Between Cyan & Adtran
Figure 2: Adtran's OPTI-6100 and Cyan's Solution
Figure 3: Future Development of Cyan Technology
Figure 4: Market Sweet Spot for Cyan
Figure 5: Differentiation on Cyan Not as Clear as CEO's Previous Products
Figure 6: Telecom Pragmatics' Recommended Future Direction for Cyan
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October 2009 issue: Should Adtran Consider Coming Out with Low-Cost Optical Cross-Connect?
Ciena Should Not MD CoreDirector I
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Financial Analysis
Overview
Figure 1: Adtran's Modus Operandi for Product Development
Figure 2: Lessons Learned by Adtran in Temporarily Moving Away from MO
The Optical Cross-Connect Option for Adtran
Ciena's 5400 Highly Differentiated from CoreDirector I
Exhibit A: Previous Examples of Adtran's MO
Figure 3: Advantages for Adtran in Possibly Penetrating Broadband CC Market
Figure 4: Adtran's Previous Experience with Cross-Connects
Figure 5: Reasons Why Ciena Will Probably MD CoreDirector I
Major Obstacles to Adtran Considering Optical Cross-Connect Space
Recommendations to Adtran
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September 2009 issue: Ciena's New 5400: Evolutionary & Potentially Enduring
(updated 10/9/09 regarding offer on Ciena Assets)
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Overview
Figure 1: A Better Mousetrap by Ciena
Transformation of Ciena
Lost Opportunity for Tellabs
Market Resistance to Mesh Architectures/Control Planes
Compatibility
Ciena's New Products "Future-proof"?
Figure 2: Equipment Compatibility on Ciena's New Switches
Obligatory OPEX Savings Rhetoric
Ciena's Proposed Purchase of Nortel's Assets Questionable
Figure 3: Ads and Disads of Ciena's Potential Buyout of Nortel Division
"Stalking Horse"
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August 2009 issue: Will ROADMs Ultimately Cannibalize Optical Cross-connects?
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents: Commodity-like Market for Component & System Vendors
US ROADM Market
Figure 1: Key Success Factors in ROADM System Market
8-Degree Systems
ROADMs Taking on Optical Switching in the Future?
Figure 2: ROADMs Taking on Switching vs Limited Impact
Figure 3: Evolution of ROADMs
System Suppliers to US
Fujitsu
Tellabs
Ciena
Cisco Systems
Alcatel-Lucent
Huawei
Infinera
Nortel ROADM Assets
ADVA Optical Networking
Ekinops
Others
Component Vendors
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July 2009 issue: Broadband Cross-connects: A Competitive Analysis
Authors: Samuel Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross
Table of Contents
Ciena's Market Position
Financial Analysis
Figure 1: Financial Situation of Vendors
Market Growth
Future of Broadband Cross-connect Technology
Figure 2: Evolution of Broadband/Cross-Connects
Head-to-Head Comparisons of Suppliers
Ciena
Alcatel-Lucent
Huawei
Sycamore
Tellabs
Infinera
Cisco Systems
Fujitsu
Figure 3: Major Broadband/Optical Cross-Connect Vendor Rankings
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